Daily Brief: Fuel Mood Hits Critical as Iran Tensions Drive Global Diesel Above $1.40/L

Global fuel markets have entered **CRITICAL** territory for the first time, with the Fuel Mood indicator registering heightened stress across multiple regions. The average global diesel price now sits above $1.40/L ($5.30/gal), driven primarily by ongoing Iran Strait tensions and their cascading effects on Asian and European import-dependent economies.

## Key Developments

**Philippines** continues to bear the brunt of the crisis, with diesel near $1.97/L ($7.46/gal). The Department of Energy reported its second consecutive week of double-digit price increases, with diesel rising $0.25-0.30/L ($0.95-1.14/gal) for the week of March 24-30. Government fuel subsidies for transport workers have been activated.

**Thailand** saw diesel settle at approximately $1.04/L ($3.94/gal) after the government slashed fuel subsidies last week, triggering overnight increases of 18-22% across fuel types. The subsidy cut reflects the fiscal strain of maintaining price caps amid sustained crude oil elevation.

**Brazil** diesel prices sit at approximately $1.27/L ($4.81/gal). Despite global pressure, Petrobras pricing policies and Brazils ethanol-blending advantage provide some buffer, though diesel remains exposed to global crude movements.

**India** has held diesel prices steady at approximately $0.93/L ($3.52/gal). The government is absorbing the global price shock through strategic reserves and diversified sourcing, keeping pump prices unchanged for over 12 months.

**UAE** announced sharp fuel price increases for April 2026: diesel jumped to $1.28/L ($4.84/gal) — up from $0.74/L ($2.80/gal) in March. One of the biggest hikes in recent UAE history.

**Sri Lanka** diesel rose roughly 20% to approximately $1.27/L ($4.81/gal) as the island nation, still recovering from its 2022 economic crisis, faces renewed pressure from elevated import costs.

## Market Context

Brent crude remains elevated at $103.79/barrel, approximately 31% above the January 2025 baseline of $79/barrel. The Iran Strait scenario probabilities remain weighted toward prolonged tension, with the Grind and Prolonged scenarios accounting for roughly 70% of estimated outcomes.

EU diesel prices remain among the worlds highest, with Netherlands at $3.08/L ($11.66/gal), Denmark at $2.67/L ($10.11/gal), and Germany at $2.72/L ($10.30/gal). These prices reflect both crude costs and heavy taxation.

## Data Notes

All prices in USD per liter with gallon equivalents. Data sourced from official government APIs (EIA, EU Oil Bulletin, Spain MINETUR), public news RSS feeds, and estimation models for countries without direct data. All estimated prices are clearly labeled on the platform.